The imminent possibility of UFOs

20.40, Monday 18 Jan 2021

Heads up, there might be UFOs, and we’ll find out in June.

John O. Brennan, head of the CIA under Obama, has this to say: I’ve seen some of those videos from Navy pilots, and I must tell you that they are quite eyebrow-raising when you look at them.

And, from that same interview:

But I think some of the phenomena we’re going to be seeing continues to be unexplained and might, in fact, be some type of phenomenon that is the result of something that we don’t yet understand and that could involve some type of activity that some might say constitutes a different form of life.

Now here’s another interview, also with ex US intelligence.

“Is it fair to boil it down to two possibilities, either another country has leapfrogged the US in technology or extraterrestrial?” Papadopoulos

“Those are the leading hypotheses, yes” Chris Mellon, Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Intelligence.

And those feel like the two options:

Either it’s a Breakaway Civilization, a term introduced to me by this excellent post by Jay Springett:

The basic idea of the ‘Breakaway Civilization’ is simply that you have a secret group, a classified group of people, with access to radically advanced technology, radically advanced science, and they just don’t share it with the rest of the world. One scientific breakthrough leads to another, and that leads to another and so on. So the next thing you know, you’ve got a separate group of humanity that is vastly far beyond the rest of the world.

Or “far beyond” on just a single axis.

I’ve previously talked about this as orthogonal innovation, and in this case it is the possibility that there is a country, somewhere, that has gone hard on aviation and aerospace for some decades, and it’s so far beyond what we have now that we don’t know how to interpret it under current physics. It’s either a country, or maybe a group from one of the old superpowers that splintered off 50 years ago and found progress but not yet been reabsorbed.

Or, it’s aliens.

From the Jerusalem Post: Former Israeli space security chief says aliens exist, humanity not ready.

This “Galactic Federation” has supposedly been in contact with Israel and the US for years, but are keeping themselves a secret to prevent hysteria until humanity is ready.

There’s a related conspiracy theory. Here’s the story of Eisenhower’s 1954 Meeting With Extraterrestrials:

On the night and early hours of February 20-21, 1954, while on a ‘vacation’ to Palm Springs, California, President Dwight Eisenhower went missing and allegedly was taken to Edwards Air force base for a secret meeting. …

[The event was] the beginning of a series of meetings with different extraterrestrial races that led to a ‘Greada Treaty’ that was eventually signed.


After the last few years, I’m reluctant to discount conspiracy theories. Not as facts per se, but perhaps state-actor-amplified chaff and flare to obscure adjacent truths.

I’m also reluctant to believe that intelligence officers are ever ex-intelligence officers. I’ve a suspicion that a rogue ex-intelligent officer would swiftly and quietly become an ex-ex-intelligence officer. But also, if you wanted to gently trickle information to the public, as a state intelligence agency, this might be exactly how you would start – whether that information were the on-ramp to bigger truths or, again, to obscure adjacent ones.

All of which is interesting because, as part of the Covid-19 relief and spending bill, signed into law at the end of December 2020, there was also a stipulation (link to CNN) for a 180-day countdown for US intelligence agencies to tell Congress what they know about UFOs.

180 days.

So, end of June it is.


We speculate to anticipate.

There was the small chance of supply chain disruption from a “no deal” Brexit – so we cached a small larder of groceries in the cupboard upstairs to hedge against that possibility. As it happens our cache covered us usefully when there was the run on the supermarkets, at the beginning of the first Covid lockdown. Unintended but helpful.

Serious question:

If you accept that there is the small possibility that we will soon find out that there are UFOs, whether aliens or advanced aviation, then how, as a rational individual, should you behave?

Assuming there’s a Breakaway Civilisation with new physics, perhaps a clever solution to the fluid dynamics equations, discovered by luck in the 1950s, a glitch that makes low-energy aeronautics possible – a way of bouncing off chaotic, artificial vortices in the atmosphere that is in a practical sense indistinguishable from antigravity…

…if new physics were to be announced in late June, with another country way out ahead, do you buy Lockheed Martin stock today, or do you sell it?

Or if there are aliens:

Aliens likely indicate faster-than-light travel, which has implications for the current max speed of computation, so I wouldn’t put any faith in cryptocurrency (as it could soon be counterfeited). And actually, you might want to opt out of the global economy entirely, as it might soon be drastically shocked by new technology, so you should keep your wealth in the fundamentals instead. Not gold, as the supply could radically increase (and the price plummet) due to mining in the Asteroid Belt. Perhaps you would buy land?

Follow-up posts:

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