2003-03-03

Iraq conflict - OPEC and euro vs dollar


Original paper:
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html

Something shorter:
http://www.feasta.org/documents/papers/oil1.htm

More links that got posted to a list I'm on:
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/commentary/story/0,4386,174303,00.html
http://thespleen.com/culture/nideaquinidealla/
http://www.rferl.org/nca/features/2000/11/01112000160846.asp
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/commentary/story/0,4386,174303,00.html
http://www.cnn.com/2000/WORLD/meast/10/30/iraq.un.euro.reut/
http://www.investavenue.com/article.html?ID=4368


And a speech by a man from OPEC last year:
http://www.opec.org/NewsInfo/Speeches/sp2002/spAraqueSpainApr14.htm

Reading that last one I'm more sceptical about the original paper, which now
seems unnecessarily alarmist. A transition from dollars to euros would be
*extremely* hard and lengthy, so the sudden-shock situation outlined would be
unlikely and a bit too obviously deliberate.

However, the point about Norway and the UK joining the euro is interesting. If
you peg that as inevitable in the medium term then taking control of the Iraqi
oilfields is a wise move for the US.


So in summary: Speculative, not enormously probable, but interesting as a
possible factor.

matt